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Novel Survey Results, Part I

Update: The full survey results and the raw data are now posted at http://www.jimchines.com/2010/03/survey-results/

Last month, I began collecting information from professionally published novelists.  The goal of the survey was to learn how writers broke in, and to use actual data to confirm or bust some of the myths about making it as a novelist.

My thanks to everyone who participated, as well as the folks at Smart Bitches Trashy Books, Book View Cafe, SFWA, SF Novelists, Absolute Write, and everyone else who helped to spread the word.

The survey closed on March 15, 2010 with 247 responses.  There’s a great deal of information here, so I’ll be breaking the results into several blog posts.  At the end, I’ll combine everything into one big write-up and post it on the web site for future reference.

So let’s bust some writing myths.  Today I’ll be looking at:

The Raw Data
Short Story Path to Publication
Self-Publishing Your Breakout Novel

The Raw Data:

For this study, I was looking for authors who had published at least one professional novel, where “professional” was defined as earning an advance of $2000 or more.  This is an arbitrary amount based on SFWA’s criteria for professional publishers.  No judgment is implied toward authors who self-publish or work with smaller presses, but for this study, I wanted data on breaking in with the larger publishers.

247 authors from a range of genres responded.  One was eliminated because the book didn’t fit the criteria (it was for a nonfiction title).  A random audit found no other problems.  The results were heavily weighted toward SF/F, which is no surprise, given that it was a fantasy author doing the study.  But I think we’ve got a respectable range here:

The year in which authors made their first sale covered a range of more than 30 years, with the earliest being 1974.  The data is heavily weighted toward the past decade.

When I do the final write-up, I’ll also include a spreadsheet of the raw data (with all identifying information stripped out).

So there’s the background information in a nutshell.  With that out of the way, let’s get to the first myth…

The Short Story Path to Publication:

I received a great deal of contradictory advice about how to break in, back in the late 90s.  Many writers told me you had to sell short stories first to hone your craft and build a reputation so agents and editors would pay attention to you.  Others told me this was outdated, and these days you could skip short fiction if you wanted and just jump straight into novel writing.

So do you have to sell short fiction first?  I asked how many short stories people sold, if any, before making that first professional novel sale.  Answers ranged from 0 all the way to 400 short fiction sales.  On average, authors sold 7.7 short stories before selling the novel.

Next I looked at the median, the midway point in our sample.  The median number of short fiction sales was 1, meaning half of the authors sold more than this many, and half sold fewer.

But let’s make this even simpler.  Of our 246 authors, 116 sold their first novel with zero short fiction sales.

Possible Data Quality Issue: The question was “How many short fiction sales, if any, did you have before making your first professional novel sale?”  Several authors noted that they only included “professional” short fiction sales, which might reduce the numbers.  But even so, the idea that you must do short fiction first?  Totally busted.  Not only that, but looking at a scatterplot of the number of short fiction sales and the year of the first novel sale, this appears to be busted going back at least 30 years.

I do believe that short fiction sales can help an author.  One author noted that they were contacted directly by an editor who had read the author’s short fiction and wanted to know if the author had a novel.  Personally, I found that short fiction helped me a lot with certain aspects of the craft.  And of course, a lot of us just enjoy writing short stories.

Self-Publishing Your Breakout Novel:

For as long as I’ve been writing, some authors have been announcing the death of traditional publishing.  Especially with the growth of print-on-demand and electronic publishing, I hear that self-publishing is the way to go.  The idea is that if you self-publish successfully, you’ll attract the notice of the big publishers and end up with a major contract, like Christopher Paolini did with Eragon.

One of the survey questions asked how authors sold their first novel to a professional publisher.  The options were:

  • Self-published, then sold the book to a professional publisher
  • Published with a small press, then sold the book to a professional publisher
  • Submitted directly to a professional publisher, who bought it
  • Submitted to an agent, who sold the book to a professional publisher
  • Other

To those proclaiming queries and the slush pile are for suckers, and self-publishing is the way to land a major novel deal, I have bad news: only 1 author out of 246 self-published their book and went on to sell that book to a professional publisher.  There was also 1 “Other” response where the author published the book on his web site and received an offer from a professional publisher.  (It should be noted that this author already had a very popular web site, which contributed to the book being noticed and picked up.)

Just to be safe, I ran a second analysis, restricting the results to only those books that sold within the past five years.  PoD is a relatively new technology, so it’s possible the trends have changed.  But after looking at the data, the results are pretty much identical.

This does not mean self-publishing can never succeed, or is never a viable option.  (I.e., please don’t use this as an excuse for a “Jim hates self-publishing” rant.)  However, for those hoping to leverage self-published book sales into a commercially published breakout book (a la Eragon), the numbers just aren’t in your favor.  For the moment at least, the traditional pathways — submitting to an agent, submitting directly to the publisher — still appear to be the way to go.

Thus ends part 1 of our episode.  Tune in soon, when we take on the myth of overnight success, and the myth that you have to know somebody in order to break in.

Mirrored from Jim C. Hines.

Comments

( 122 comments — Leave a comment )
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beccastareyes
Mar. 16th, 2010 01:40 pm (UTC)
I'd love to see the number of short stories broken down by genre the author wrote his/her first novel in (at least in cases when there is a large number of authors in that subsample).

Man, once you put the spreadsheet out, I will so be geeking out over it.
jimhines
Mar. 16th, 2010 01:44 pm (UTC)
Oh, there are tons of other questions I could have asked, and lots of things I wish I'd added or rephrased. But I didn't want the survey to become overwhelming, and I'm already looking at a pretty long write-up, even without all of the nifty graphs :-)

(Totally unrelated, this has been quite the crash course in Microsoft Excel!)
(no subject) - beccastareyes - Mar. 16th, 2010 01:52 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - jaylake - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:01 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - kellymccullough - Mar. 16th, 2010 04:50 pm (UTC) - Expand
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out_totheblack
Mar. 16th, 2010 01:44 pm (UTC)
Awesome, Jim, thanks. I really like the way you're breaking thing down and I'm really glad that you're doing this. I've been curious about much of this myself. Really looking foreward to the rest of it.
jimhines
Mar. 16th, 2010 01:45 pm (UTC)
You're very welcome! I'm glad this format works. It will probably take me a few days to get part two written up and ready, but hopefully that will be up by the end of the week.
nick_kaufmann
Mar. 16th, 2010 01:47 pm (UTC)
Thanks, Jim! Fascinating stuff!
saladinahmed
Mar. 16th, 2010 01:51 pm (UTC)
I find all of these graphs intimidating. Can't we just get to the one-sentence coda to the executive summary that goes "But Saladin Ahmed, of course, will be obscenely rich and manageably famous."

That...that IS how this ends, right? RIGHT?

jimhines
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:02 pm (UTC)
Well, I'm doing this Mythbusters-style, which means I have to end it by blowing something up.

I'll rerun the Saladin Ahmed data predictions in the spreadsheet, though!
silveraspen
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:04 pm (UTC)
Thank you for sharing this! It's fascinating stuff.
blitheringpooks
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:14 pm (UTC)
I think the short story route is definitely influenced by genre. In romance, there aren't many/any viable short story opportunities so it was not an option. Does mystery have as many opportunities for short story writers as sf/f?

I was told that the difference between writing a short story and a novel was so profound, the short story form is not a stepping stone to novels, that if you want to write novels, you simply do it, so I did.
merriehaskell
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:29 pm (UTC)
I was told that the difference between writing a short story and a novel was so profound, the short story form is not a stepping stone to novels, that if you want to write novels, you simply do it.

I used to buy that. But for someone like me, who has a helluva time with plot, I needed to learn plotting in a microcosm before I could work with it on a novel scale. Just a datapoint...
(no subject) - jimhines - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:32 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - merriehaskell - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:38 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - barbarienne - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:12 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - georgmi - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:59 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - blitheringpooks - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:40 pm (UTC) - Expand
It's not necessarily different... - merriehaskell - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:37 pm (UTC) - Expand
Re: It's not necessarily different... - rachel_swirsky - Mar. 16th, 2010 06:41 pm (UTC) - Expand
Re: It's not necessarily different... - marycatelli - Mar. 16th, 2010 07:36 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - kellymccullough - Mar. 16th, 2010 04:53 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - blitheringpooks - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:43 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - swords_and_pens - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:02 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - blitheringpooks - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:14 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - marycatelli - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:37 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - blitheringpooks - Mar. 16th, 2010 02:44 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - akiko - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:58 pm (UTC) - Expand
kellyrfineman
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:18 pm (UTC)
Fascinating. Will tune in for part 2 for sure.
mardott
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:24 pm (UTC)
Wow, great information. Thanks for doing this!
temporus
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:24 pm (UTC)
Great stuff Jim. I find it interesting that your current data suggests the short story route is not as standard as the frequency of advice is given out.

I only wish folks had been consistent in reporting all sales, and not some reporting only pro-rate sales. I suspect it might change the numbers some, but no idea if it would change it significantly or trivially.
merriehaskell
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:27 pm (UTC)
Excellent stuff. I like how your big green bar above agented manuscripts rather proves that agent submissions, not publisher submissions, are more than three times as effective in the last five years. Rather puts the endless "agents are crap" arguments to rest. Finally. Thank god.
jimhines
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:42 pm (UTC)
You can also see suggestions that submitting directly to the publisher was a more popular/effective route in the past, and the shift toward agents in recent years. Both routes work, but I definitely think agents are taking on more of that role these days.
(no subject) - blitheringpooks - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:15 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - barbarienne - Mar. 16th, 2010 03:19 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - (Anonymous) - Mar. 17th, 2010 06:31 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - tarafore - Mar. 19th, 2010 03:11 pm (UTC) - Expand
ktsparrow
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:43 pm (UTC)
I love this. Thanks for running the numbers.
celestineangel
Mar. 16th, 2010 02:54 pm (UTC)
Well, here's the deal, what I think a lot of proponents of self-publishing as THE way to go forget: the success of the self-published book is entirely dependent on the author, on the author's finances and the author's contacts and resources.

Unless an author's idea of success is as simple as seeing their words in print, the success of a book IS the number of readers who read it. A self-published book by an otherwise unpublished and unknown author will need, if you'll excuse my unprofessional language here, a shitton of marketing to reach more than the author's immediate friends, family, coworkers, etc. There's no publisher with the funds and contacts and knowledge available to help. Therefore, in my opinion, self-publishing is more likely to succeed (for varying values of success) for someone who already has a reader-base, either through previous publication or internet fame.

As for short stories, whew! This puts my mind at ease. I don't have much luck with short fiction. Seems I think big and complicated and am incapable of containing anything in a short story. I have a couple of them out there (hey, hey, "The Kahbid-Dai" and "Once Upon a Time" with Shadowfire Press, if you don't mind the absolutely shameless self-promotion). But everything else I've tried to write as a short story grows until it's out of hand. D:

Thanks for this!
kellymccullough
Mar. 16th, 2010 03:44 pm (UTC)
I would probably alter the measure to: the success of a book IS the number of readers who pay* to read it since I'm a professionally focused writer. Also, having said that, I must note that for me at least, any definition of success must include artistic success--it has to be the best book I could write at the time.

*For values of pay that equal money coming in to the writer somehow, including library sales, later sales based on reading that first work, and any other income streams that happen along either before or in the wake of said reading.
(no subject) - celestineangel - Mar. 16th, 2010 04:41 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - kellymccullough - Mar. 16th, 2010 04:45 pm (UTC) - Expand
(no subject) - barbarienne - Mar. 16th, 2010 07:47 pm (UTC) - Expand
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(no subject) - kellymccullough - Mar. 18th, 2010 06:15 pm (UTC) - Expand
mabfan
Mar. 16th, 2010 03:01 pm (UTC)
Thanks! This is fascinating.
ext_228118
Mar. 16th, 2010 03:07 pm (UTC)
Wow. Thanks Jim.
This is some great information. Thanks for putting it together.
swords_and_pens
Mar. 16th, 2010 03:11 pm (UTC)
Thanks for this. It's nice to see the conventional wisdom being backed up by some numbers. I don't know if it will change the minds of some of the more determined nay-sayers, but it's definitely food for thought for those who are looking for the mythical "back door" to being published.
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