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10 Hugo Predictions

Hugo voting closed a week or so back, and in another two weeks, the winners will be announced at Sasquan. After said announcements, social media will explode with commentary, congratulations, criticism, and chest-thumping. I figured I’d get my post-Hugo blogging done before the Hugos are actually announced, and thus beat the crowd. (Feel free to check back later and see how close I was with my predictions, or mock me for being completely off-base.)

Hugo Award Logo1. Congrats to David Gerrold and Tananarive Due for a wonderful job hosting the Hugo award ceremony!

Some of the puppies were complaining that the hosts would use their platform to take shots at the Sad and Rabid Puppies and their works. I’m glad (and utterly unsurprised) to see those fears were nothing but paranoia, and perhaps wishful thinking on the part of those trying a little too hard to portray themselves as victims. Gerrold and Due both care a great deal about the Hugos, the genre, and the community, and that showed. Thank you both for your professionalism on stage after a very challenging lead-up.

2. At least three puppy nominees won Hugo awards.

Congratulations to the winners, including those who were on the puppy slates. While most of the puppy nominees failed to take home a rocket, I imagine there will be at least three. I’m predicting one will go to my own editor, Sheila Gilbert, who’s made the ballot on her own in previous years, and is (in my biased opinion) utterly deserving of the award. I’m not as sure who the second will be, but I’m guessing Kary English in the short story category. One of the movies on the puppy ballots will also win. Finally, I think there’s a good shot of either Resnick or Brozek taking home a short-form editor Hugo.

3. At least one category went to No Award.

No Award didn’t sweep the ballot like some people hoped/feared. It did take the Novella category, though. I think it will probably take Best Related Work as well.

4. A number of puppies came in below No Award in the voting.

Once the Hugo Awards have been announced, the next step is to pore over the voting numbers. Vox Day and John C. Wright had the most dramatic losses, but they weren’t alone in scoring behind No Award. Michael Williamson’s related work also took a drubbing from No Award. (On a related note, I believe John C. Wright is now the first person ever to be nominated for six Hugo awards, as well as the first person to lose or be disqualified in all six.)

Some people will point to this as evidence that Hugo voters don’t like slate-voting, and/or proof of the low quality of much of the puppy-nommed work. Others will point to it as proof that the SJW cabal still runs the Hugos, and worked to keep the Wrong People out.

5. The non-puppy nominees did quite well.

Congrats in particular to Cixin Liu and Ken Liu in the Best Novel category for The Three-Body Problem, which narrowly beat out Ancillary Sword and The Goblin Emperor.

6. Various puppies immediately ran to the internet to declare victory.

This was an easy prediction, since a number of folks have been declaring victory for weeks or months now. Because losing the Hugos proves their point that the game is rigged against them! Winning the Hugos proves their point that people really want to read their kind of stories. No Award is what they wanted all along, because it’s actually about destroying the Hugo awards.

In addition to these old and surprisingly mobile goal posts, there will also be crowing about who was kept off the final ballot by the puppy slates, because it’s actually about rocket-blocking those evil SJWs.

7. Wesley Chu took home the Campbell Award.

It’s not technically a Hugo award, but it’s presented at the ceremony, and I think Wes is going to be rocking that tiara.

8. The Puppies will return for at least one more year, but they won’t have the same impact.

Given the amount of attention it brought him, I have little doubt that Theodore Beale will launch Rabid Puppies 2016 and try to repeat this year’s performance. The Sad Puppies have chosen their spokesperson for 2016 as well, but after the backlash they received this year, I expect the sad side to start to quietly move on. So we’ll have at least another year of puppy slates, and they’ll probably get some nominees on the ballot again, but it won’t be a repeat of 2015.

9. Someone will try to run a counterslate in 2016. It will fail.

Slates and counterslates are, in my opinion, a really bad idea. That won’t stop someone, somewhere from trying to run an anti-puppy slate. But it will be condemned pretty broadly, and won’t get any real traction.

10. Fandom and the Hugos survived.

This year did not break the Hugos. It did not destroy fandom or the genre. It did expose a lot of anger and emotion, and led to tens of thousands of hours of lost productivity for people trying to read every last update and/or respond to every comment. Because no matter what “side” you’re on, at least we can all agree that 20th Century Fox really needs to stop trying to make Fantastic Four movies.

Bonus Prediction: If I’m right about some or most of these, some dumbass will point to it as proof I’m part of the SJW cabal rigging the results ahead of time.

Mirrored from Jim C. Hines.

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Comments

( 17 comments — Leave a comment )
chris_gerrib
Aug. 7th, 2015 03:03 pm (UTC)
Well, Jim, either your mind-control beam is working great or we're secretly clones (sorry that you didn't get the hair) but I agree with these predictions almost completely.

If I were to quibble, I'd go stronger on Best Related getting No Award and a 75% chance of Best Fan Writer going to No Award.
jimhines
Aug. 7th, 2015 03:04 pm (UTC)
Both categories are very strong contenders for No Award.

Also, pbbt! :-P
nelc
Aug. 7th, 2015 03:11 pm (UTC)
I'd get my mockery of your predictions in early, too, but I fear I can't separate my hopes and desires easily from my rational analysis.
billroper
Aug. 7th, 2015 03:50 pm (UTC)
We'll see how your predictions sort out, oh, Carnac the Magnificent. :)

(Yes, I am old. And I know where to look for the mayonnaise jar.)

If I were making a prediction, it would be that everyone who has taken a stand on one side or another of all this will declare victory.

But you've got an interesting set of thoughts here and it will be entertaining to see what actually happens.
starcat_jewel
Aug. 7th, 2015 04:55 pm (UTC)
It's pretty obvious that Best Novel is going to be a horse race. But I will bet you a drink that The Goblin Emperor takes it -- because it's Just That Good, and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. :-)
ethelmay
Aug. 7th, 2015 09:38 pm (UTC)
Me too. (Except I kind of think Jim doesn't drink? So some equivalent in foodstuff, perhaps, if that's the case.)
starcat_jewel
Aug. 7th, 2015 10:59 pm (UTC)
I don't drink booze either, so for me "drink" basically means "any kind of potable" -- coffee, hot chocolate, soft drink, whatever. My standard "bar drink" is club soda and grenadine. Not only does it taste good, but it's virtually guaranteed to get at least one person asking, "What IS that?" because it's a truly outrageous shade of pink!
elialshadowpine
Aug. 8th, 2015 10:42 pm (UTC)
Shirley Temples! Yes! :D

There's one restaurant near me that's so used to me ordering them they give me extra cherries. ^_^
buddykat
Aug. 7th, 2015 05:31 pm (UTC)
Next year's Sad Puppies coordinator does NOT plan on doing a slate. She plans on doing a recommendation list. I spoke with her about it at RavenCon, and she was very clear about not wanting to do a slate; she will have a few rules for recommendations, but they are *very* simple and ones that I personally do not find objectionable - and don't think most people would find objectionable.

1. You must have actually read what you are recommending.
2. The author must not have won a Hugo in the past.
3. (I don't recall what this one was, I just recall that there was a third rule)
4. She will not list any recommendations for herself - if people want to nominate her works, that's fine, but she will not list them on the recommendation list.

ETA: She plans on waiting until after the Hugos are awarded this year to start requesting recommendations.

Edited at 2015-08-07 05:32 pm (UTC)
jimhines
Aug. 7th, 2015 05:58 pm (UTC)
I would be happy to be proven wrong on that one...
starcat_jewel
Aug. 7th, 2015 06:05 pm (UTC)
That shows a good connection to reality. If the SPs had stuck with that instead of doing what they did, we wouldn't be having this whole mess this year.
jimhines
Aug. 7th, 2015 06:08 pm (UTC)
But even if the sad puppies back off a bit, I expect another full-on slate from Beale, one which will likely try again to capitalize on the sad puppy slate or recommendations.
soon_lee
Aug. 8th, 2015 12:17 pm (UTC)

Given that it was Beale/Rabids that had the greater impact (look at the number of SP works that didn't end up in the ballot vs the number of RP works that didn't) the SPs are at best stooges, and at worst the "reasonable" front for Beale.


And besides, why should I trust what they say they plan to do next year, especially given that their words & actions to date have been inconsistent?

la_marquise_de_
Aug. 7th, 2015 06:21 pm (UTC)
I'm certainly crossing my fingers for Wes.
And Sheila deserves a Hugo.
sephystabbity
Aug. 8th, 2015 07:08 pm (UTC)
Fandom and the Hugos survived.

That's really what I'm taking away from this. At worst, this mess might have made me feel unwelcome at time, but at best it made me buy both the Three Body problem and the Goblin Emperor and enjoy them immensely, as well as pick up an NK Jemisin that I haven't started yet. I'm still reading and purchasing and supporting my fave authors, fantasy fandom doesn't seem to have crumbled around my shoulders yet and no matter who wins, I'm confident it'll proceed that way.

Really enjoyed reading your tongue-in-cheek predictions :D
Roger Christie
Aug. 9th, 2015 05:36 pm (UTC)
I don't think I'd really call a a long form hugo a win for the puppies. Obvious nominees are obvious and I doubt there's a single one that would have not made the ballot absent the puppies. They don't get to co-opt them.
mtlawson
Aug. 10th, 2015 06:55 pm (UTC)
You're more optimistic than me.

Then again, they can't break the Nebulas, so the Nebulas will gain in importance. (My prediction.)
( 17 comments — Leave a comment )

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